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One of the activities of the Roads2HyCom project has been to create a calendar of R&D milestones, building upon the other R&D mapping exercises conducted by the project. This activity, known as the Roads2HyCom Technology Watch, aimed to identify breakthroughs that could substantially increase the viability of a fuel cell or hydrogen technology, and also breakthroughs in competing technologies (for example, storage of electricity) that could render Hydrogen less competitive as an energy vector. The output from this activity is a series of future time lines that highlight the predicted timing and nature of delivery of emerging technologies, the scope of which includes planned as well as existing programmes.

The Technology Watch activity has been conducted mainly by Ricardo UK with support from other Roads2HyCom partners, in particular RWTH Aachen, JBRC Prague and Coretec Ventures.

Objectives and Methodology

The aim of this Technology Watch study has been to identify recent changes to the “accepted wisdom” on Fuel Cell and Hydrogen technologies that could lead to opportunities for the technology to enter the market more quickly. Since these technologies are potentially moving closer to market, this study has focused on sectors of application (referring if necessary to basic research breakthroughs that affect the sector), rather than on the status of fundamental research .

The study has used information from the public domain to highlight the predicted timing and nature of delivery of these emerging technologies. Planned as well as existing development and research programmes have been included. Information on recent concepts, prototypes and products has provided an indication of Fuel Cell and Hydrogen technology readiness in each application sector. The study has also drawn on information gathered in other work tasks of the Roads2HyCom project.

Hydrogen is an energy vector, in that it must be produced from a primary energy source before it can be used. If technologies that use hydrogen as a fuel are to become commercially successful, then the technologies behind the hydrogen infrastructure to support that technology must also be successful. Therefore the Roads2HyCom Technology Watch included technologies from across the hydrogen energy chain, as illustrated in Figure 2.

Examples of hydrogen technologies across the hydrogen energy chain

Fuel cells are the main family of technologies that use hydrogen as a fuel. However, some types of fuel cell can run of other fuels, for example Solid Oxide Fuel Cells (SOFC) can utilise natural gas. Therefore Roads2HyCom has also watched the development of infrastructures for other energy vectors such as natural gas and methanol.

The Technology Watch gathered information on news of upcoming projects and demonstration programmes, forecast predictions and announcements made about steps taken towards commercialisation of fuel cell and hydrogen technologies. Information sources included:

Web portals and news websites
Company press releases
Conferences and seminars
Industry journals, magazines and newsletters
Technology contacts
Data received through the Roads2HyCom Researchers Questionnaire

The data collected from the public domain was stored in an Excel spreadsheet. The information recorded included technology category, launch date (generally proposed), country, company or organisation name, information about the technology and, finally, the information source. At the time of writing this report, the Technology Watch database contained over 500 data entries.

From the data gathered, a series of time lines were created. These times lines, which are presented by technology category, are discussed in the following sections. Collectively the Technology Watch Time Lines form a calendar of R&D milestones.

The information is used, together with analysis of relevant technical performance indicators, to seek insight into the future prospects of the applications, and to validate (or otherwise) conventional thinking on the status of the sector.

Technology Watch Time Lines

The following pages describe in detail the players, developments and milestones in each sector. An overview of all milestones is shown here.

Transport Sector

Stationary Sector

Portable Sector

Hydrogen and Fuel Cells in Portable Applications

Discussions and Conclusions

This part of the Roads2HyCom project has used a comprehensive review of commercial and prototype Fuel Cell and Hydrogen application products, to identify trends in the emerging technology and to validate the project’s findings on the State of the Art. This approach has been successful, in that fully integrated products provide a more robust view of what the technology is capable of in a commercialisable form. In many cases there may be laboratory developments with greater apparent capability, but that capability can only be considered robustly proven once it is contained in an integrated product.

This study has revealed an extraordinary number of products at prototype or limited production stage, considering that the Fuel Cell sector as a whole is commercially immature. In total, there are more than 40 manufacturers active (meaning having prototypes or low volume products) across the vehicle sectors; the major aircraft manufacturers are engaged in programmes, and a variety of applications have been demonstrated in marine power. In stationary and auxiliary power there are more than 20 active manufacturers, with a number of energy utilities starting to make significant investments in bringing products into use.

And yet, outside the educational toy sector, the study has found just one organisation trading profitably with a Fuel Cell product. This is an important issue – to be considered truly “commercialised”, a product has to be made and sold on a basis that is profitable all the way up the value chain, from parts supply through integration to retail. The definitive challenge for the Fuel Cell in the coming decade, is to start showing a different picture with more products being traded profitably.

The results of this study indicate how and where this might happen:

Passenger Cars

The passenger car is a very important application for Fuel Cells and Hydrogen, due to its ubiquity, which creates both a need and a route to economies of scale. Encouraging progress is evident in terms of technical performance of Fuel Cells (and also Hydrogen ICEs) in the latest field-trial vehicles, and also in terms of the level of commitment displayed by a number of manufacturers. There appears to be a route map for addressing the Fuel Cell cost issue, though not, as yet, for the cost of the fuel tank. Battery-electric technologies are both a key competitor here and a complementary technology, as seen in recent prototypes with dual fuel (Hydrogen / Electricity) capability. The precise nature of the products that finally become fully and profitably commercialised will depend on the outcome of one of the defining technological battles of the twenty-first century - the battle between the storage of Electricity and the storage of Hydrogen. In the meantime, we will see the advent of niche or image vehicles that may not be profitable but are still commercially relevant.

Captive Fleets

The captive fleets sector (buses, taxis, delivery vehicles) is known to be a promising early market for Fuel Cells and Hydrogen, because of lower infrastructure dependency and the beneficial effect of local political will on purchase decisions. Perhaps importantly, these early fleets might provide seeds for the growth of a more extensive Hydrogen infrastructure, linking city centres to highway refuelling. Technical hurdles are similar to the passenger car, although the larger daily operating range of captive fleet vehicles places Hydrogen at a clear advantage over Electricity as a fuel in many cases. The success of the next generation of Fuel Cell and Hydrogen captive-fleet demonstration vehicle will be critical to the success of Hydrogen in Transport.

Material Handling Vehicles

Material handling vehicles have been identified as a promising near-term market opportunity for Fuel Cells and Hydrogen, especially in addressing the limitations of the incumbent battery-electric technology used in indoor goods handling. On the surface, fuel cell systems for material handling vehicles appear to be on the tipping point of commercialisation. Several system integrators have produced fuel cell hybrid power packs for electric forklifts and pallet trucks designed to replace the existing battery packs. Technical specifications on these products are publically available through the system integrator websites, although price information needs to be requested. Numerous small-scale fleet trials are now taking place in North America and Europe, and early users appear to like the technology. However, given the challenges of translating these low volume products to a more mainstream context, it could take another 4-5 years before fuel cell applications for this sector are truly market ready; and advances in battery technology (including fast charging) will continue to present competition. Nonetheless, this is a promising sector.

Two Wheeled Vehicles

Two Wheeled vehicles could become an interesting early market, especially if transport policy supports the development of markets for zero-emission two wheelers. The usual issues of cost, size, durability and refuelling need to be addressed but this is a less aggressive environment for many of these issues. Battery-electric two wheelers will present a challenge, though as with their four-wheeled counterparts the Hydrogen tank remains a more capable energy store. The sector appears to offer the potential of an untapped global market for basic, low cost but clean individual mobility. Further investment in better products, and the retailing of fuel, is needed in order to exploit this market; but there is a real risk that products developed and made cheaply in China could dominate world markets.

Auxiliary Power

Auxillary Power for transport applications is an existing, genuine market for the Fuel Cell product, with thousands having been sold to genuine users in the leisure sector without special incentives and on a basis that is probably profitable along the supply chain – and this in itself is still unusual in the fuel cell business. However, there is only one very active supplier selling products right now, and it is a product that requires its own dedicated fuel, and its power output is not sufficient for it to migrate directly from the leisure sector to commercial transport application. To consolidate its success as an early market sector for the Fuel Cell, technological progress in sulphur-tolerant reformers, system cost, size and durability, needs to continue so that APU systems with powers in the 1-10kW range can be realised – perhaps sharing stack components with smaller transport or CHP systems for economies of scale.

Marine Sector

The Marine Sector offers a variety of potential early market applications, ranging from auxiliary power in the leisure and light commercial sector (essentially marinising technologies from the APU sector), to specialised motive power for environmentally sensitive situations. Although these applications are mostly one-off or low volume production, these technologies might serve a useful purpose in increasing public awareness and acceptance of fuel cell technology. Use of Fuel Cells in larger commercial shipping applications is still to be proved; this very demanding market (in terms of in-service ruggedness) will not be an early market.

Civilian Aircraft Sector

The Civilian Aircraft Sector will not be an early adopter of fuel cell technology. However, given the interest in the technology displayed by two of the world’s major aircraft manufacturers, it is likely that fuel cells will appear in aircraft in the future. The most likely applications are hybrid fuel cell APU systems for commercial aircraft, with products appearing around 2020. In the meantime, specialised military applications for surveillance will be a small but very high value market.

Domestic CHP Sector

The Domestic CHP Sector is an attractive early market for the Fuel Cell, and publicly stated information gives a clear indication that this sector is rapidly approaching true commercialisation – first products are scheduled to be marketed from circa 2012. There is a strong, well-developed existing market for conventional boiler replacement and, as fuel prices increase, many consumers will be looking to adopt money-saving technology. A key test will be whether these first products deliver on “business case” and durability; in this sector free-piston Sterling engines are a challenger technology but they have their own issues of cost, durability and vibration. In the long term, this sector could be threatened by super-insulated homes and solar water heating, but given the lifetime of housing stock this does not limit the market for several decades.

Industrial and Commercial Market Sectors

The Industrial and Commercial Market Sectors offer a huge potential for growth for Fuel Cell technology as the distributed generation expands across the globe. Fuel Cell products for industrial and commercial co- and tri-generation applications are already available. However the strong, well-developed market for the conventional product combined with the higher purchase price for the Fuel Cell systems is limiting the market penetration for Fuel Cell technology. Further R&D on reducing Fuel Cell system costs by using modular components and on improving fuel reformer technology will improve the prospects for Fuel Cell technology in this sector. Suitable Government policies and subsidies may also encourage the shift from conventional to new technology.

Back-Up Power and UPS Market Sectors

The Back-Up Power and UPS Market Sectors have great potential for growth and early penetration is under way. There are several Fuel Cell systems already available in the market place, which can compete on an equivalent basis with the incumbent technology. However, for Fuel Cell systems to establish a firm market share in this sector, the technology must be proven to be reliable, durable and at a price that can be justified on a life-time basis.

Portable Fuel Cells

Portable Fuel Cells is an interesting early market for Fuel Cell and Hydrogen technology. Education kits are already commercially successful and there are indications that the technology is breaking into the Toy market. Fuel Cell technology offers significant advantages compared to current battery technology in terms of reduced weight and higher energy density. This is helping to drive the development of the technology especially for military applications. Several military fuel cell products have already been tested in the field. Technology developed for the military is likely to spin out to the commercial sector over time. Within consumer electronics, no Fuel Cell powered electronic devices are currently available, but a couple of portable Fuel Cell battery chargers have been launched over the past year. These Fuel Cell battery chargers indicate a tentative first step into a potential market for Fuel Cell technology.

References

Roads2HyCom document reference R2H8018PU

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Emerging Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Products